ISW reveals Putin's plans: which region of Ukraine will come under attack.

Analysts assert that Russian occupiers intend to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region and begin an offensive on Sumy, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, Russian troops continue to give ground in the area of the border between the Sumy and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation, however, the grouping of Russian troops in this area is unlikely to be able to begin a significant offensive operation on the city of Sumy in the near future without receiving large reinforcements.

Russian forces have been rapidly advancing in the Kursk region since early March 2025, however, their successes have slowed down as Ukrainian forces retreated from Sudja and resumed the use of HIMARS systems.

Experts emphasize that the Russian military command is likely trying to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region, but it is possible that Russian commanders are also planning to move further into the Sumy region and the city of Sumy in the future.

Experts also note that the Russian military command may be trying to create a buffer zone in the Sumy region or initiate an offensive on the city of Sumy, exploiting the vulnerability of the Ukrainian front in the Kursk region, with the aim of justifying its claim to Ukrainian territory.

Analysts believe that Putin may demand the transfer of part of the Sumy region to Russia during future peace negotiations, using successes in the Sumy region and pressure on the city of Sumy. The informational and political pressure that will arise from the offensive on the city of Sumy may be more attractive for Putin than advances in other frontline areas.

Zelensky has already stated who should control the ceasefire regime.